Every spring at 213 we gather a whole bunch of projections for players and average them together to see what a conglomerate of baseball sources think a given player will perform over the year. It’s wholly unscientific – averaging averages and not weighting them for previous accuracy or amount of playing time they feel a player will see.
(Important Note: This article was written on 12/22. There were rumors earlier this off-season that Jeurys Familia may be traded as a way to off load salary. So there’s a chance that some statements in this article may be made out of date if he is traded between 12/22 and 12/28).
Going into 2019, Mets fans were worried about the back of the rotation, the offense and not the bullpen. Between Familia, Diaz and Lugo, things looked good. Going into 2020 Mets fans are worried about the back of the rotation, the bullpen and not the offense. A lot of that deals with Familia’s fall this past year. We were worried about his WHIP last year, here are his projections followed by his actual numbers:
2019: 60.0 IP, 5.70 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.733 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, -0.4 WAR, 5.87 DRA
Last year we talked about the amount of variance in the data, from ZiPS thinking he was going to be amazing to Baseball Prospectus not being impressed.
They were all wrong. He did terrible. But it’s useful to look back at the numbers and think about what could be possible if Familia can put together a bounce back year.
