Every spring at 213 we gather a whole bunch of projections for players and average them together to see what a conglomerate of baseball sources think a given player will perform over the year. It’s wholly unscientific – averaging averages and not weighting them for previous accuracy or amount of playing time they feel a player will see.
This one is going to sting. Zack Wheeler became a consistent rock in the rotation for the Mets last season and the Mets repaid him by not making him an offer, letting him go to Philly with a chip on his shoulder on a mega deal that compared to amount that other pitchers are getting – he deserves.
Last season we had the following to say about Wheeler, and summed up his projections below:
In 2019 he posted the following stat line:
2019: 31 G, 195.1 IP, 3.96 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 1.259 WHIP, 9.0 K/9, 3.5 WAR, 3.80 DRA
First off, Baseball Prospectus pretty much nailed Wheeler’s projections with the exception of playing time which everyone missed. Partially why Wheeler was so good was he went out there every 5th day and was consistent. Overall, while he under performed in terms of ERA, he over performed or just about matched everywhere else including a much better WAR and DRA than projected.
This is why Wheeler is going to be difficult for the Mets to replace in the rotation next year. At 213, we have a very similar to take to the majority of Mets fans that Stroman can’t replace Wheeler if they were in the same rotation at the same time, that’s not a replacement. Inking Wheeler would have put the Mets over the top and now the Mets will have hope that Vargas’ replacements in Porcello and Wacha over perform.
Speaking of Jason Vargas, we’ll do his projection step back tomorrow!
