Was yesterday the worst Mets loss of the season? While that title is debatable, the loss guaranteed that the four game set was the worst for the Mets this season and the last 5 games have been the worst the Mets have performed in quite some time. Since last Sunday and throughout the series with the Phillies, the Mets have the lead in the game, only to have to have the bullpen squander it. Yesterday was the most extreme example with Edwin Diaz, the star trade acquisition and the reason the Mets parted with Kelenic, give up two homers in the bottom of the 9th, taking the score from 3-1 Mets to 6-3 Phillies. A disaster of a series.
But the Mets look to turn things around with the Braves at home tonight. Jacob deGrom gets the start. He is 4-6 over 16 games and 97.0 innings this year with a 3.25 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 1.093 WHIP and 125 ERA+. In his last 7 games he has allowed 12 runs over 45.0 innings, a 2.40 ERA with an opponents batting average of .232. Against Atlanta this year he has made two different starts. Back in April he allowed 3 runs over 5.0 innings. Ten days ago he made one of his best starts this season allowing 2 runs over 8.1 innings while striking out 10. The Braves have the following numbers against deGrom:
- Freddie Freeman 13-50. 2 2B, 3 HR, 5 BB, 13 K
- Nick Markakis 11-45, 2 HR, BB, 9 K
- Ender Inciarte 7-37, 2 2B, 2 BB, 9 K
- Ozzie Albies 4-26, 2B, BB, 6 K
- Tyler Flowers 4-16, HR, 3 BB, 7 K
- Dasby Swanson 4-16, 2 2B, 3 BB, 8 K
The Mets will most likely see Mike Soroka tonight. He left his last start with a right forearm contusion but should be able to pitch tonight. On the season he is 8-1 over 13 games and 78.1 innings with a 2.07 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 0.970 WHIP and a 222 ERA+. His last full start was against the Mets where he allowed 3 runs over 6.0 innings. It was during a four game stretch that despite allowing 1 run over 8.0 innings in one game, he had a 4.21 ERA. His ERA right now at 2.07 is impressive but he went into the month of June with a 1.07 ERA, so it feels like his season is at a key inflection point. The Mets have the following numbers against him:
- Michael Conforto 2-9
- Todd Frazier 1-8, 2 K
- Amed Rosario 2-6, 2B
- Pete Alonso 1-3, K
- Robinson Cano 1-3, HR
- Jeff McNeil 0-3
- Wilson Ramos 0-3
Let’s Go Mets!
Tbh the sample sizes, hitters v pitchers, are so small as to make it a fundamentally pointless exercise.
Time to tear it down. Even if the Mets deal no one slated to appear on the 2020 roster they’ll project to be worse as of March 28 2020 than they projected to be as of March 28 2019:
Frazier, Lagares, Wheeler, and Broxton won’t be on the club.
For 2o19 the more optimistic projections had the Mets winning 85. The projection of all the following players for 2020 rate to be lower than they were for 2019: Ramos, Cano, Rosario, Lowrie, Familia, deGrom, Syndergaard, and Matz–all thanks to being further into their decline phases and/or their performance declining.
McNeil has held his own, to date, Smith has excelled in a part time role, and Alonso has been brilliant, but that’s it. Vargas has picked it up but he’s still a 4-2/3 inning starter on a team with a dismal bullpen, and he’ll be 37 next season. The Mets would pick up his option if they had to decide today, but he currently sits 3rd in the rotation on the team’s 2020 depth chart.
There’s little point in trying to squeeze even 85 wins from this turnip of a team next season, and there won’t be any money to spend over the 2019-2020 offseason. Time to start over, hope to get lucky, and field the next good team prior to Alonso’s departure in 2025.
Cano