Well this might be awkward to write.
Part of the Mets success plan in 2019 was a redundancy of bats in the infield. Now the depth is being tested with Todd Frazier out with a quad and and Jed Lowrie being out all of spring training so far. When Lowrie returns, he figures to be slotted at third or where-ever makes sense for him to play. He’s coming off a career year and the Mets need his bat:
2018: 680 PA, 596 AB, 23 HR, .267/.353/.448, 4.8 WAR, 126 DRC+
Career: .262/.335/.414, 111 DRC+
Lowrie got on base at a clip almost 20 points higher than the previous year and slugged over 30 points higher as well both raising his DRC. A 126 DRC+ in the Mets lineup last year would have made him one of the best hitters. Here’s what the computers think he’ll do:
(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )
For the most part, the computers see him coming down to Earth this season, hitting a bit less than his career, getting on base at about the slam clip and slugging a bit less than his career. Thus, he see’s his WAR drop in half. But BP still sees him posting a DRC+ over his career number and a 113 would still put him in the top half of hitters on the Mets last year, easily.
Hopefully he heals quickly but also takes his time to do the work he needs to in Spring. If he’s cleared for baseball activities the last week of March, then take the extra week to rehab before coming North. The Mets don’t need a lingering injury issue this year.
