Every spring I collect several projections sources and average them together to do a meta-projection. Last year I pulled projections from Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS, Steamer, ESPN, and Baseball Reference.
I debated about writing this article. Travis d’Arnaud only had 16 plate appearances last season, so even if his slash numbers were the same as the average predicted line, it would statistically insignificant. By the Mets trading Plawecki and keeping d’Arnaud (for now) they are signaling that see Travis as member of their 2019 roster. We are also going to do a 2019 preview series later in the winter / early spring so the data in this article was going to be collected anyway.
Besides, it costs nothing to write an article, half asleep at 5:14 in the morning, so why not.
2018 Average Projection: 404 PA, 334 AB, 86 H, 14 HR, .245/.311/.433
2018 Actual: 16 PA, 15 AB, 3 H, 1 HR, .200/.250/.400
You can see the break down of projections here.
Travis is a career .245/.306/.406 hitter. My key take away from his projectile line last year was computer programs saw him getting on base slightly more and showing more power. With very little playing time last year, and a reduced role on the field, I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the year that more programs start to see Travis put up lines worse than his career line. This is what we’ll be looking for as we get ready for 2019 preview articles.
There’s also the chance that Travis can be traded. If he can cross the albatross of injuries he’s endured, he has quite a bit of pop and can still be a special player in a position where there aren’t many special players. Maybe a team wants to roll the dice on that. Maybe the Mets want a more veteran presence as a back up backstop. Time will tell.
