2018 Stats Projection – Todd Frazier

Yesterday we went of Jay Bruce’s projections and opened with a story all Mets fans of the last half decade know – the long and predetermined journey of Jay Bruce’s life to Queens. To a lesser extent, Todd Frazier is similar. He always felt like the type of the player the Mets would want if it wasn’t for David Wright. When things started to look real bad for David Wright a chorus started to rise for Frazier. Maybe it was because he felt less like a permanent replacement like a Longoria would have been. That way a hopeless dream of getting Wright back could stay alive.

Frazier is finally a Met. If you’re a cynic, it’s because the Mets are cheap and the market came to them. If you’re a Sandy supporter, it’s because he read the market and always saw this as an option. Whatever. Frazier is a Met and we don’t have to worry about an infield with both of Cabrera and Nunez now.

Todd Frazier
Source	PA	AB	H	R	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
Baseball Prospectus	559		79.042	75	28	0.238	0.321	0.457
ZiPS	583		127	77	31	0.249	0.334	0.482
Steamer	552	481	109	64	26	0.227	0.318	0.437
ESPN		480	106.08	69	26	0.221	0.322	0.429
MLB.com		531	120.006	72	27	0.226	0.314	0.424
Baseball Reference	555	483	111	71	29	0.23	0.319	0.462
Average:	562.25	493.75	108.688	71.33333	27.83333	0.231833	0.321333	0.4485
2017 Stats:	576	474	101	74	27	0.213	0.344	0.428

The projections see what many pundits say. The drop in batting average and OBP for Frazier was more fluky than anything else. Next year he should return closer to his numbers. The projections are almost in complete agreement over how many homers Todd will hit given at bats.

Frazier is a good addition to this squad. These projections don’t cover the real benefit of Frazier – his defense. If he puts up similar numbers to his career numbers and plays solid defense, the Mets will see a sizable net gain in performance.