We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!
There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for David Wright:
| David Wright | |||||||||
| PA | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| 2016 | 164 | 137 | 18.00 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 0.226 | 0.35 | 0.438 |
| Projections | |||||||||
| MLB.com | 310 | 39.00 | 11 | 36 | 3 | 0.258 | 0.352 | 0.423 | |
| Steamer | 235 | 30.00 | 7 | 28 | 3 | 0.251 | 0.331 | 0.4 | |
| ZiPS | 331 | 38.00 | 8 | 33 | 4 | 0.247 | 0.332 | 0.38 | |
| ESPN | 17.00 | 4 | 16 | 2 | 0.234 | ||||
| Baseball Prospectus | 260 | 35.00 | 7 | 28 | 5 | 0.268 | 0.348 | 0.423 | |
| Sporting News | 178 | 20.00 | 4 | 24 | 2 | 0.236 | 0.331 | 0.402 | |
| NBC Rotoworld | 221 | 32.00 | 7 | 26 | 1 | 0.258 | 0.352 | 0.403 | |
| Rotowire | 312 | 39.00 | 10 | 35 | 5 | 0.26 | 0.346 | 0.41 | |
| Baseball America | 342 | 35.00 | 8 | 32 | 4 | 0.243 | 0.309 | 0.355 | |
| FBG 2017 | 255 | 30.00 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 0.255 | |||
| Average | 295.5 | 264.71429 | 31.5 | 7.3 | 27 | 3.3 | 0.251 | 0.337625 | 0.3995 |
I pulled the data for this article way back on 2/17 and way back then things were looking ok with Wright. The question was, who lead off when Wright plays? Do they find someplace else for Reyes. Then the Wright throwing issue came to light and I’m not really sure what to write here
Most projections see a significant cut in Wright playing time this year. No one is working harder to get back to the playing field than David Wright. My thoughts at this point is anything the Mets get from Wright is gravy this year. That being said, it was nice to see his projected average being 25 points higher than his actual average from last year.
Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)
Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data
