We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!
There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Brandon Nimmo:
| Brandon Nimmo | |||||||||
| PA | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| 2016 | 80 | 12.00 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.274 | 0.338 | 0.329 | |
| Projections | |||||||||
| ZiPS | 526 | 66.00 | 11 | 51 | 6 | 0.249 | 0.328 | 0.384 | |
| ESPN | 15.00 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 0.236 | ||||
| Baseball Prospectus | 107 | 11.00 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 0.244 | 0.33 | 0.377 | |
| Sporting News | 156 | 15.00 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 0.263 | 0.328 | 0.382 | |
| NBC Rotoworld | 154 | 20.00 | 3 | 17 | 2 | 0.253 | 0.326 | 0.37 | |
| Rotowire | 242 | 38.00 | 5 | 26 | 3 | 0.277 | 0.333 | 0.409 | |
| FBG 2017 | 228 | 30.00 | 3 | 28 | 2 | 0.287 | |||
| Average | 316.5 | 195 | 27.857143 | 4.2857143 | 23.285714 | 2.4285714 | 0.2584286 | 0.329 | 0.3844 |
Brandon Nimmo is in an interesting time in his Mets path. The Mets have 4 everyday outfielders, plus Juan Lagares, and no one is really a Center Fielder. As such, the projections think Nimmo only has slightly under 200 AB’s hitting 4 homers, and 23 RBI’s and about .250 batting average.
Nimmo is having a slight set back right now with the injury from the WBC and will definitely start in Las Vegas. While he is down on the depth chart, it’s nice to know the Mets have Nimmo as an option if needed.
Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)
Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data
