We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!
There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Curtis Granderson:
| Curtis Granderson | |||||||||
| PA | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
| 2016 | 633 | 545 | 88.00 | 30 | 59 | 4 | 0.237 | 0.335 | 0.464 |
| Projections | |||||||||
| MLB.com | 540 | 91.00 | 26 | 66 | 5 | 0.246 | 0.338 | 0.452 | |
| Steamer | 500 | 74.00 | 22 | 62 | 6 | 0.234 | 0.333 | 0.422 | |
| ZiPS | 538 | 75.00 | 21 | 57 | 6 | 0.238 | 0.331 | 0.433 | |
| ESPN | 84.00 | 26 | 60 | 6 | 0.239 | ||||
| Baseball Prospectus | 524 | 71.00 | 21 | 62 | 6 | 0.227 | 0.323 | 0.419 | |
| Sporting News | 516 | 78.00 | 25 | 60 | 4 | 0.233 | 0.334 | 0.422 | |
| NBC Rotoworld | 545 | 86.00 | 26 | 62 | 7 | 0.233 | 0.328 | 0.429 | |
| Rotowire | 559 | 89.00 | 27 | 64 | 7 | 0.243 | 0.345 | 0.449 | |
| Baseball America | 591 | 80.00 | 24 | 62 | 6 | 0.235 | 0.325 | 0.411 | |
| FBG 2017 | 450 | 69.00 | 22 | 52 | 7 | 0.268 | |||
| Average | 531 | 528.71429 | 79.7 | 24 | 60.7 | 6 | 0.2396 | 0.332125 | 0.429625 |
I’m amazed Curtis Granderson hasn’t received more attention the last two years. He was a critical part of both the 2015 and 2016 teams over performing both years hitting 30 homers last year. He’s projected to hit 24 this year, and there’s no reason to doubt he can do that or better.
I have a lot of faith in Granderson, he’s also my favorite player on the team, but with Curtis in the club house this and his numbers basically looking on par to previous seasons, the Mets have a critical piece of the lineup in 2017.
Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)
Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data
