We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll start with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.
There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Eric Goeddel:
| Eric Goeddel | ||||||
| IP | Record | ERA | BB | K | WHIP | |
| 2016 | 35.2 | 2-2 | 4.54 | 14 | 36 | 1.318 |
| Projections | ||||||
| ZiPS | 61.1 | 4.26 | 27 | 61 | 1.34 | |
| ESPN | 2-2 | 4.50 | 36 | 1.47 | ||
| Average | 61.1 | 2-2 | 4.38 | 27.00 | 48.50 | 1.41 |
His season was sidelined by injuries that weren’t really understood until the end of the season. As such, the projections see Goeddel seeing an increase in playing time with slightly improved ERA numbers and slightly worse WHIP numbers. Goeddel may have to be a lightning in the bottle type case, show a strong outing in a game, to get regular playing time int he Mets pen as Terry sometimes lets pitchers who aren’t the last pitcher he used waste away in the pen.
Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)
Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data
