We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.
There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Jerry Blevins:
| Jerry Blevins | ||||||
| IP | Record | ERA | BB | K | WHIP | |
| 2016 | 42 | 4-2 | 2.79 | 15 | 52 | 1.21 |
| Projections | ||||||
| ZiPS | 32.1 | 3.62 | 12 | 38 | 1.207 | |
| ESPN | 2-3 | 3.07 | 41 | 1.22 | ||
| Baseball Prospectus | 38.1 | 2-1 | 3.62 | 45 | 1.14 | |
| Average | 35.1 | 2-2 | 3.44 | 12.00 | 41.33 | 1.19 |
Jerry was a critical signing for the Mets at the end of the off-season and the Mets got him for the price they wanted. Similar to other pitchers we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks, Blevins is projected to have an increase in ERA but a decrease in WHIP (although for Blevins it looks to stay the same). I do wonder if these projections are susceptible to the Mets using Jerry differently. He’s supposed to be a lefty specialist, but I can see the Mets mixing him up, especially since his numbers were better against right handed batters last year.
Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)
Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data
