We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.
There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Fernando Salas:
| Fernando Salas | ||||||
| IP | Record | ERA | BB | K | WHIP | |
| 2016 (NYM) | 17.1 | 0-1 | 2.08 | 0 | 19 | 0.63 |
| Projections | ||||||
| ZiPS | 64 | 3.80 | 16 | 65 | 1.14 | |
| ESPN | 3-5 | 3.84 | 67 | 1.25 | ||
| Baseball Prospectus | 62.2 | 3-1 | 3.93 | 65 | 1.19 | |
| NBC Rotoworld | 60.2 | 3-3 | 3.71 | 15 | 61 | 1.19 |
| Average | 62.1333 | 3-3 | 3.82 | 15.50 | 64.50 | 1.19 |
Fernando Salas had a phenomenal end of the season with the Mets last year where he walked no one in 17.1 innings of relief and posted a sparkling 0.63 WHIP. He’s not going to put up those numbers again but the season numbers the projection sources have for him look reasonable. Also helpful, there is strong agreement between the different sources on how much he will pitch and what those results are, making the average line a likely possibility for Salas.
Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)
Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data
Pingback: 2017 Stats Review – Fernando Salas | 213 Miles From Shea