We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.
There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Sean Gilmartin:
| Sean Gilmartin | ||||||
| IP | Record | ERA | BB | K | WHIP | |
| 2016 | 17.2 | 0-1 | 7.13 | 7 | 11 | 1.585 |
| Projections | ||||||
| ZiPS | 106.2 | 4.39 | 33 | 89 | 1.302 | |
| ESPN | 1-1 | 5.14 | 17 | 1.43 | ||
| FBG 2017 | 107.1 | 9-7 | 4.86 | 31 | 94 | 1.43 |
| Average | 106.65 | 5-4 | 4.80 | 32.00 | 66.67 | 1.39 |
I’m not sure where Gilmartin fits in with this club. Three of the four sources that did projections for Gilmartin see him as someone who will get about half a season of action as a starter. I guess he fits as a 5th starter if Wheeler, Gsellman and Lugo all don’t work out. His projections are exactly where I would expect him to be. The 17.2 innings last year wasn’t a lot of time to really make a strong statement about his ability. His average line above screams “back of the rotation / spot starter” type pitcher, who is exactly what he is.
Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)
Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data
