Today starts a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll start with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.
There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Noah Syndergaard:
| Hansel Robles | |||||||||
| IP | Record | ERA | BB | K | WHIP | Saves | |||
| 2016 | 77.2 | 6-4 | 3.48 | 36 | 85 | 1.35 | 1 | ||
| Projections | |||||||||
| ZiPS | 69.2 | 3.49 | 26 | 80 | 1.19 | ||||
| ESPN | 4-4 | 3.79 | 75 | 1.33 | |||||
| Baseball Prospectus | 54 | 3-2 | 4.02 | 57 | 1.32 | 10 | |||
| NBC Rotoworld | 72 | 5-5 | 3.50 | 35 | 76 | 1.25 | 1 | ||
| Rotowire | 75 | 4-4 | 3.72 | 32 | 75 | 1.307 | 0 | ||
| FBG 2017 | 77.2 | 6-4 | 3.48 | 36 | 85 | 1.35 | 1 | ||
| Average | 69.48 | 4.4-3.8 | 3.67 | 32.25 | 74.67 | 1.29 | 3.00 |
Important Note: This article was written before the league and team made a decision on Familia.
What I found fascinating in the above chart was Baseball Prospectus, who is convinced that Robles becomes the closer when Familia is out.
Also looking at projections for several seasons now, I felt Robles was a candidate for a pitcher whose projection numbers would be far worse than his previous years, but that doesn’t seem the case here. There is strong agreement for the amount of games Robles will be in, range of ERA and range of WHIPs. The average line seems probable and welcome out of the Mets pen.
Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)
Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data
