We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.
There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Addison Reed:
| Addison Reed | |||||||||
| IP | Record | ERA | BB | K | WHIP | Saves | |||
| 2016 | 77.2 | 4-2 | 1.97 | 13 | 91 | 0.94 | 1 | ||
| Projections | |||||||||
| MLB.com | 74 | 4-3 | 2.68 | 18 | 80 | 1 | 4 | ||
| Steamer | 65 | 3-3 | 3.46 | 19 | 69 | 1.15 | 2 | ||
| ZiPS | 69.1 | 3.12 | 17 | 77 | 1.11 | ||||
| ESPN | 4-4 | 2.72 | 84 | 1.08 | 9 | ||||
| Baseball Prospectus | 54 | 3-2 | 4.16 | 60 | 1.24 | 3 | |||
| Sporting News | 68 | 5 | 2.12 | 16 | 80 | 1.04 | 8 | ||
| NBC Rotoworld | 69.1 | 4-5 | 3.25 | 17 | 72 | 1.18 | 12 | ||
| Rotowire | 75 | 4-4 | 2.76 | 17 | 83 | 1.093 | 9 | ||
| Baseball America | 71 | 3 | 2.15 | 14 | 65 | 0.92 | 7 | ||
| FBG 2017 | 64 | 3-4 | 3.09 | 15 | 70 | 1.13 | 12 | ||
| Average | 67.6889 | 3.7-3.6 | 2.95 | 16.63 | 74.00 | 1.09 | 7.33 |
Important Note: This article was written before any league and team decision was made about Familia, which will, of course, affect Reed.
The projections don’t see Reed repeating his stellar season, but they still have him posting a way above average season. What Reed did last year was insane, so it would be surprising to see him repeat it (although Baseball America seems to think that he will). It is shocking to see how much Baseball Prospectus thinks Reed regresses this. My gut feels the average line looks right.
Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)
Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data
