We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.
There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Jeurys Familia:
| Jeurys Familia | ||||||
| IP | Record | ERA | BB | K | WHIP | |
| 2016 | 77.2 | 3-4 | 2.55 | 31 | 84 | 1.21 |
| Projections | ||||||
| MLB.com | 72 | 3-3 | 2.63 | 25 | 77 | 1.17 |
| Steamer | 65 | 3-3 | 3.18 | 24 | 70 | 1.22 |
| ZiPS | 76 | 2.96 | 28 | 80 | 1.197 | |
| ESPN | 3-4 | 2.75 | 64 | 1.14 | ||
| Baseball Prospectus | 39.2 | 2-2 | 2.55 | 42 | 1.28 | |
| Sporting News | 51 | 2 | 2.65 | 17 | 57 | 1.16 |
| NBC Rotoworld | 53.2 | 3-3 | 2.85 | 18 | 59 | 1.19 |
| Rotowire | 60 | 3-4 | 2.70 | 18 | 65 | 1.133 |
| Baseball America | 78 | 3 | 1.96 | 24 | 70 | 0.97 |
| FBG 2017 | 50 | 4-4 | 2.89 | 17 | 52 | 1.16 |
| Average | 60.4889 | 2.8-3.3 | 2.71 | 21.38 | 63.60 | 1.16 |
Important Note: This article was written before a decision has been made about Familia’s future with the team.
Looking at the projections, it is clear that some programs/programers took into account that Familia will have a suspension this year (which he absolutely should: the Mets cannot sweep domestic violence under the rug).
Because of the differences in time Familia will have on the mound, the only stats that make sense to look at are ERA and WHIP. The averages his ERA rising but his WHIP dropping which odd but whatever. Cut off here is his save projections which are, respective to the list above, 40, 38, n/a, 38, 27, 30, 30, 38, 37, 21 with an average of 33.
Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)
Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data
