We continue the month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.
There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Jacob deGrom:
| Jacob deGrom | ||||||
| IP | Record | ERA | BB | K | WHIP | |
| 2016 | 148 | 7-8 | 3.04 | 36 | 143 | 1.2 |
| Projections | ||||||
| MLB.com | 180 | 14-9 | 2.95 | 46 | 180 | 1.15 |
| Steamer | 180.1 | 11-10 | 3.49 | 46 | 177 | 1.16 |
| ZiPS | 163 | 3.31 | 41 | 162 | 1.147 | |
| ESPN | 12-7 | 3.19 | 168 | 1.17 | ||
| Baseball Prospectus | 180 | 12-10 | 3.51 | 189 | 1.18 | |
| Sporting News | 167 | 11 | 3.45 | 40 | 162 | 1.17 |
| NBC Rotoworld | 188.2 | 15-8 | 3.34 | 43 | 192 | 1.16 |
| Rotowire | 175 | 11-8 | 3.29 | 42 | 170 | 1.149 |
| Baseball America | 168 | 9 | 2.46 | 34 | 144 | 0.96 |
| FBG 2017 | 175 | 11-9 | 3.07 | 41 | 180 | 1.12 |
| Average | 175.144 | 12.6-8.7 | 3.21 | 41.625 | 172.4 | 1.1366 |
Jacob deGrom has been the steady pitcher for the Mets, even though he hasn’t been in the majors that long. His numbers from last year are spoiled by a series of bad starts right before he left for the season due to injury. My gut tells me it is the combination of those starts plus rising concerns coming back from the injury that kept most of his projections for this year more human (but still really good). It is slightly alarming seeing some of the more well known projection companies (Baseball Prospectus, Steamer) seeing large increases in ERA this year.
Statistic Anomalies: Baseball America is all in on deGrom having an MVP type season in terms of ERA and WHIP, just not in length.
Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)
Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data
