I feel bad for de Aza. His signing caused a lampooning of the Mets front office, as a lot of people, myself included, thought this was it for the outfield. Alejandro off the bench as a pinch hitter is valuable same as Alejandro for a B-Roster day. The Mets missed for a while last year having strong options off the bench that were major league players. Last year de Aza was everywhere playing for the Giants, Red Sox and the Orioles. Here’s what the computers think he’ll be able to do with the Mets:
| Player: | Alejandro de Aza | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Source: | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| MLB.com | 175 | 24 | 4 | 17 | 6 | 0.269 | 0.333 | 0.411 | 0.745 |
| Steamer | 200 | 20 | 4 | 21 | 5 | 0.24 | 0.3 | 0.365 | 0.665 |
| ESPN | 147 | 20 | 3 | 17 | 4 | 0.259 | 0.321 | 0.395 | 0.716 |
| ZiPS | 479 | 57 | 9 | 42 | 12 | 0.257 | 0.319 | 0.403 | 0.722 |
| PECOTA (BP) | 510 | 62 | 9 | 45 | 14 | 0.252 | 0.313 | 0.383 | 0.696 |
| Sporting News | 341 | 41 | 6 | 32 | 10 | 0.24 | 0.293 | 0.364 | 0.657 |
| Baseball America | 491 | 67 | 12 | 51 | 14 | 0.261 | 0.325 | 0.407 | 0.732 |
| Rotowire | 423 | 58 | 9 | 42 | 13 | 0.258 | 0.321 | 0.404 | 0.725 |
| MLB Yearbook | 435 | 59 | 9 | 42 | 7 | 0.257 | 0.324 | 0.402 | 0.726 |
| AVERAGE: | 355.6666667 | 45.33333333 | 7.222222222 | 34.33333333 | 9.444444444 | 0.254777778 | 0.316555556 | 0.392666667 | 0.709333333 |
I think the programs are way overdoing the amount of AB’s that de Aza will get. That being said most of these projections, especially the ones over 400 AB’s were published before the Mets signed Cespedes, so if that factored into the playing time equation, that makes sense. That being said, let’s concentrate on the average numbers. A .250 batting average would be a decline for de Aza, as would a .316 OBP and a .393 SLG. So the models see a decline for de Aza. Alejandro faces a difficult playing time situation (in that it won’t be consistent), so my gut agrees with the decline projected but let’s see how he responds.
Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual
