Travis d’Arnaud is tricky to project, and his 2015 season is a good example of why. In April, it looked like d’Arnaud was on pace for a breakout season. Then he got hit by a pitch, broke bones, and started a long road back. He still did quite well hitting 12 homers over 268 PAs and a .268 batting average (in the previous year he had 13 homers over 421 PAs and hit .242). Let’s take a look at what the computers think he’ll do in 2016:
| Player: | Travis d’Arnaud | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projection Source: | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| MLB.com | 415 | 57 | 18 | 65 | 1 | 0.263 | 0.325 | 0.448 | 0.773 |
| Steamer | 388 | 47 | 16 | 55 | 1 | 0.258 | 0.32 | 0.446 | 0.766 |
| ESPN | 425 | 53 | 18 | 66 | 0 | 0.261 | 0.331 | 0.464 | 0.795 |
| ZiPS | 388 | 49 | 15 | 55 | 0 | 0.254 | 0.312 | 0.448 | 0.76 |
| PECOTA (BP) | 522 | 59 | 19 | 69 | 1 | 0.249 | 0.321 | 0.435 | 0.756 |
| Sporting News | 333 | 42 | 14 | 48 | 0 | 0.264 | 0.322 | 0.45 | 0.772 |
| Baseball America | 391 | 50 | 14 | 53 | 2 | 0.261 | 0.328 | 0.437 | 0.765 |
| Rotowire | 397 | 53 | 18 | 58 | 0 | 0.275 | 0.342 | 0.481 | 0.823 |
| MLB Yearbook | 421 | 52 | 17 | 54 | 1 | 0.249 | 0.316 | 0.437 | 0.753 |
| AVERAGE: | 408.8888889 | 51.33333333 | 16.55555556 | 58.11111111 | 0.666666667 | 0.259333333 | 0.324111111 | 0.449555556 | 0.773666667 |
This is about what was expected. The computers expect his average to drop back and his on base percentage. They still see him hitting for more power than he did in 2014, but a tick back than 2015 (which may be due to more ABs). The models are split on whether d’Arnaud will have a 50/50 platoon or one that approaches 75/25, and this is probably due to his injury history. I think the Mets would like the split to approach 75/25, but no one would be surprised if it approached 60/40 or less.
Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual
