You know what feels like ages ago? Dillon Gee on the Mets. His story with the Mets is essentially the accelerated Jon Niese story. Gee was moved the bullpen before the season even started, which caused some controversy. He was then put back into the rotation thanks to Wheeler needing surgery. Gee fell to injury himself and when he came back, his pitching just wasn’t that good. The kids on the farm came up and Gee went out west for the resto of the season. He now finds himself with the World Champion Kansas City Royals. Could the projections in 2015 predict his struggles? Let’s take a look at his projections:
PECOTA (BP): 7-8, 22 G, 132.2 IP, 107 K, 39 BB, 1.22 WHIP, 3.90 ERA
MLB.com: 6-6, 110 IP, 77 K, 34 BB, 1.26 WHIP, 3.93 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 7-7, 121 IP, 98 K, 36 BB, 1.21 WHIP, 3.79 ERA
ZiPS: 23 G, 142 IP, 107 K, 40 BB, 4.18 ERA
Steamer: 5-7, 17 G, 96 IP, 70 K, 26 BB, 4.35 ERA
ESPN: 6-5, 73 K, 1.22 WHIP, 3.86 ERA
Average: 6.2-6.6, 20.6 G, 120.1 IP, 88.6 K, 35 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 4.00 ERA
(Originally posted here)
His actual numbers:
0-3, 39.2 innings, 1.66 WHIP, 5.90 ERA
The projections pretty much missed the mark on all cylinders with Gee. They way overestimated his playing time, mainly because they underestimated the playing time of the other young members of the staff and then there was his WHIP. Gee just couldn’t get it together, especially once he came back from injury. This isn’t really a failure on the projection software but the unfortunate reality of Gee’s life last season.
