Juan Lagares entered 2015 in an interesting spot. He was easily the best defender in the outfield the Mets have and at the start of the season he had a starting job flanked by Cuddyer and Granderson. Mayberry would be interjected with Cuddyer and Lagares from time to time. The Mets had Conforto about to come up and the outfield was going to get crowded. Unforeseen when the projections were made last year, the Mets would acquire Cespedes. Now Lagares is the 4th outfielder with de Aza.
Here’s what the projections thought Lagares would do in 2015:
PECOTA (BP): 433 PA, 46 R, 20 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 10 SB, .253 BA, .292 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 548 AB, 62 R, 6 HR, 45 RBI, 13 SB, .252 BA, .292 OBP
MLB.com: 520 AB, 70 R, 6 HR, 54 RBI, 2o SB, .271 BA, .311 OBP
ZiPS: 542 PA, 58 R, 25 2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB, .264 BA, .305 OBP
Steamer: 584 PA, 534 AB, 52 R, 27 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 12 SB, .249 BA, .290 OBP
ESPN: .259 BA, 60 R, 6 HR, 51 RBI, 17 SB
Average: 519 PA, 534 AB, 58 R, 24 2B, 3.6 3B, 6 HR, 47.8 RBI, 14 SB, .258 BA, .298
(Originally posted here)
And his actual 2015 numbers:
465 PA, 47 R, 16 2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 41 RBI, 7 SB, .259 BA, .289 OBP
Were they right? More or less. Lagares had considerably less time than projected, thanks to Cespdes. His runs, doubles and stolen bases still would have been below projected if he played out 519 PA. His OBP was down nearly 10 points but his batting average was nearly projected perfectly. His triples and homers interestingly would have ended high above projections if he played out 519 PA, his RBI total would have been just about right. There seems to be a balance here of over projected and under projected, so in the end, he sort of played to his to projections.
The 2016 projections are going to be way more difficult as it is really unclear how much playing time he will get this season.
