Underrated aspect of the 2016 Mets season? John Mayberry Jr doesn’t factor as a major piece. Mayberry was a major off season signing for the Mets before the start of 2015. He originally was going to play the role of a hitting specialist, getting starts against LHP, pinch hits and starting in the outfield whenever someone starts to slip (Lagares? Cuddyer?). He ended up being terrible for the Mets. There was some concern that he would be a repeat of Chris Young once the Mets let John go, but that didn’t hold true at all. There was an additional concern that this year’s signing of de Aza would be like Mayberry, but then Cespedes.
Did the computers accurately predict the Mayberry mess? Let’s take a look!
PECOTA (BP): 250 PA, 27 R, 12 2B, 7 HR, 27 RBI, .232 BA, .293 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 201 AB, 23 R, 7 HR, 26 RBI, .229 BA, .290 OBP
MLB.com: 133 AB, 11 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, .226 BA, .295 OBP
ZiPS: 333 PA, 302 AB, 38 R, 17 2B, 10 HR, 40 RBI, .228 BA, .294 OBP
Steamer: 217 PA, 196 AB, 20 R, 28 2B, 9 HR, 22 RBI, .224 BA, .289 OBP
ESPN: .227 BA, 14 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI
Average: 267 PA, 208 AB, 22 R, 19 2B, 6.8 HR, 23 RBI, .227 BA, .292 OBP
(Originally posted here).
His actual 2015 numbers:
119 PA, 110 AB, 8 R, 6 2B, 3 HR, 9 RBI, .164 BA, .227 OBP
Mayberry ended up playing about half the amount than the computers thought he would. His homerun numbers are the only thing that are really close when adjusted for that. His hitting numbers were way down. None of the computers thought he was going to have a real strong season, but they didn’t expect him to struggle as much as he did.
