For the first time in a while the Mets won’t be heading into spring training with some form of Daniel Murphy question. Here are some from the previous years! Can he play everyday? (Yes.) Can he play second? (Above Technically Yes). Can he play outfield (Technically Yes). Can he hit? (Yes.) Is he productive on defense (Depends on your definition of productive). Can he be a consistent hitter? (Yes) Can he play third/first (better than 2nd).
Anyway, the hero of the postseason for the Mets signed a multi-year contract with the Nationals this off-season. The Mets acquired Neil Walker for a year and for the Mets that move made the most sense.
Of course, this not why we’re here right now. Were the computers right about Murphy last year? Here’s what they thought:
PECOTA (BP): 614 PA, 70 R, 36 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 53 RBI, 14 SB, .279 BA, .318 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 581 AB, 72 R, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 14 SB, .279 BA, .319 OBP
MLB.com: 595 AB, 82 R, 10 HR, 62 RBI, 15 SB, .291 BA, .331 OBP
ZiPS: 643 PA, 602 AB, 84 R, 35 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .286 BA, .326 OBP
Steamer: 621 PA, 576 AB, 67 R, 34 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 11 SB, .277 BA, .319 OBP
ESPN: .282 BA, 80 R, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 16 SB
Average: 626 PA, 589 AB, 76 R, 35 2B, 2.3 3B, 9.3 HR, 59 RBI, 13.8 SB, .282 BA, .323 OBP
(Originally posted here)
Here’s what Murphy actually did:
538 PA, 56 R, 38 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 73 RBI, 2 SB, .281 BA, .322 OBP
Despite playing less than his projections thought he would, he was on track for more runs, actually hit more doubles and homers, had way more RBI and was on pace to hit more triples. He was way down on stolen bases.
So were the projections right? My gut was to say no, he out paced power by quite a bit, but when when power is taken out of the equation, the average of all of the projections came incredibly close to batting average and on-base percentage. So, yes! The projections were correct!
