Daniel Murphy was the Mets lone All-Star last year and probably by most metrics their most consistent hitter. He is also in a walk-year and right now it seems very unlikely that the Mets extend him by the end of the season or sign him to a new deal. Here are his All-Star numbers:
2014: 642 PA, 79 R, 37 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 13 SB, .289 BA, .332 OBP
And his 2015 Projections:
PECOTA (BP): 614 PA, 70 R, 36 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 53 RBI, 14 SB, .279 BA, .318 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 581 AB, 72 R, 9 HR, 54 RBI, 14 SB, .279 BA, .319 OBP
MLB.com: 595 AB, 82 R, 10 HR, 62 RBI, 15 SB, .291 BA, .331 OBP
ZiPS: 643 PA, 602 AB, 84 R, 35 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR, 70 RBI, 13 SB, .286 BA, .326 OBP
Steamer: 621 PA, 576 AB, 67 R, 34 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 55 RBI, 11 SB, .277 BA, .319 OBP
ESPN: .282 BA, 80 R, 10 HR, 61 RBI, 16 SB
Average: 626 PA, 589 AB, 76 R, 35 2B, 2.3 3B, 9.3 HR, 59 RBI, 13.8 SB, .282 BA, .323 OBP
Some of the models see a slight increase in numbers, almost all show a drop in the percentage stats like BA and OBP and they average out to a line that is basically the same as his last year. This makes sense because he’s at the point in his career where it would be rare for him to come out incredibly strong or incredibly weak. He’s been pretty consistent over the last couple of years and it would be wrong to think he would be anything else but more of the same from last year.
The question is over the next 4 years, he’ll be more of the same and then start to decline slowly while playing average defense at best. His offense is better than average at second and will be, at least in terms of consistent projections, for the next few years. Is he worth signing to a large deal? Is he more valuable to another team?
