The second of the Mets two off season signings this winter was for a 4th OF with more pop, Mayberry, effectively ending any chance of Eric Young coming back. His time was split last year between the minors, the Phillies and Toronto and as BP pointed out, he was used more against RHP, which made no sense since his strength is against LHP:
2014 Phillies: 138 PA, 11 R, 7 2B, 6 HR, 21 RBI, .213 BA, .304 OBP
2014 Blue Jays: 30 PA, 4 R, 3 2B, HR, 2 RBI, .208 BA, .333 OBP
Let’s see what the computers think he’ll do for the Mets:
PECOTA (BP): 250 PA, 27 R, 12 2B, 7 HR, 27 RBI, .232 BA, .293 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 201 AB, 23 R, 7 HR, 26 RBI, .229 BA, .290 OBP
MLB.com: 133 AB, 11 R, 4 HR, 12 RBI, .226 BA, .295 OBP
ZiPS: 333 PA, 302 AB, 38 R, 17 2B, 10 HR, 40 RBI, .228 BA, .294 OBP
Steamer: 217 PA, 196 AB, 20 R, 28 2B, 9 HR, 22 RBI, .224 BA, .289 OBP
ESPN: .227 BA, 14 R, 4 HR, 13 RBI
Average: 267 PA, 208 AB, 22 R, 19 2B, 6.8 HR, 23 RBI, .2276 BA, .292 OBP
The models are all over the place with how much playing time Mayberry will get. For the most part, I feel the average is an accurate representation, which are similar numbers to a Recker style player. What I’m worried about with these numbers is the amount of similar players the Mets may have on the field at once. For example if the Mets field a team with Mayberry and Granderson at the corner and Recker behind the plate, that is a really low BA day for the team, although not too different to the team the Mets fielded at times last year.
