Today let’s take a look at our amazing center fielder, Juan Lagares. It is difficult to remember that a year ago, the Mets brass still didn’t consider Lagares as a starter, despite his defense. There is talk in the league that his bat could take the next step this year making him a serious All-Star contender. Last year:
2014: 452 PA, 46 R, 24 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 47 RBI, 13 SB, .281 BA, .321 OBP
And the 2015 Projections:
PECOTA (BP): 433 PA, 46 R, 20 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, 33 RBI, 10 SB, .253 BA, .292 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 548 AB, 62 R, 6 HR, 45 RBI, 13 SB, .252 BA, .292 OBP
MLB.com: 520 AB, 70 R, 6 HR, 54 RBI, 2o SB, .271 BA, .311 OBP
ZiPS: 542 PA, 58 R, 25 2B, 5 3B, 6 HR, 55 RBI, 13 SB, .264 BA, .305 OBP
Steamer: 584 PA, 534 AB, 52 R, 27 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR, 49 RBI, 12 SB, .249 BA, .290 OBP
ESPN: .259 BA, 60 R, 6 HR, 51 RBI, 17 SB
Average: 519 PA, 534 AB, 58 R, 24 2B, 3.6 3B, 6 HR, 47.8 RBI, 14 SB, .258 BA, .298
Basically, the computers disagree with people. Where people around the team think Lagares is going to take the next step, the computer models think he is going to regress slightly closer to his average numbers. They expect his runs to increase, due to offense around him (not sure if that make senses) but a pretty large regression in BA and OBP. Let’s see what happens!
