On this last day of the month we reach our last pitcher in the projection series, Zack Wheeler. Last year was Wheeler’s first full season in the majors and he had a lot on his plate thanks to Harvey being out all year. As important as a Harvey bounce back season is, and strong sophomore season from deGrom, Wheeler taking the next step forward is crucial for the Mets to have a shot in 2015.
2014 Stats: 11-11, 32 G, 185.1 IP, 187 K, 79 BB, 1.33 WHIP, 3.54 ERA
He had a good first year. Harvey and deGrom spoiled us with their excellent first years, so it becomes difficult to look at his above numbers, which are actually good, and not be a little disappointed. The above pretty much shows his weakness last year: walks. He nearly had a 2-1 K to BB ratio, which wouldn’t be so bad if he didn’t have nearly 80 BB. His strikeout #’s are great, but if they don’t get on base, they don’t score. Will those numbers improve in 2015? Hopefully. Let’s take a look:
PECOTA (BP): 9-10, 28 G, 155.2 IP, 149 K, 66 BB, 1.26 WHIP, 3.67 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 9-10, 153.2 IP, 145 K, 65 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 3.75 ERA
MLB.com: 11-11, 190 IP, 190 K, 66 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 3.51 ERA
ZiPS: 31 G, 175.2 IP, 172 K, 67 BB, 3.48 ERA
Steamer: 9-10, 27 G, 153 IP, 150 K, 61 BB, 3.79 ERA
ESPN: 12-9, 188 K, 1.32 WHIP, 3.48 ERA
Average: 10-10, 28.7 G, 165.2 IP, 166 K, 65 BB, 1.28 WHIP, 3.61 ERA
So it looks like Wheeler will be more or less the same pitcher that he was last season. Usually after a pitchers first full year, the computers show a moderate regression, I would say moderate is too strong of a word when looking at these numbers, it looks like a slight regression. Also important to note, in the BP Annual, Wheeler has a 40% chance of performing significantly better than his projected like and a 65% chance of improving from last year.
