As we start Spring Training, it looks like Josh Edgin is going to have a busy season as the only LHP on the Mets roster in pen (I’m sure that will change though heading into the season). Edgin had limited time in the majors last year, but it was good:
2014 Stats: 1-0, 47 G, 27.1 IP, 28 K, 6 BB, 0.91 WHIP, 1.32 ERA
Baseball Prospectus puts it best that although Edgin looks like and is described as a LOOGY, he was successful against everyone last year, and that’s important to keep in mind. He’s part of the reason why I’m excited about the pen this year. Between Mejia, Familia, and Parnell at the back end, Black and Edgin as wild cards, Gee and second Lefty joining the bunch, it seems like a solid group of pitchers with a lot of upside. What I’m worried about right now is without another lefty, Edgin could be over used very quickly, and that tanks everything. Lets take a look at the 2015 Projections:
PECOTA (BP): 2-1, 40 G, 37.2 IP, 37 K, 14 BB, 1.22 WHIP, 3.53 ERA
ZiPS: 68 G, 47 IP, 46 K, 21 BB, 3.64 ERA
Steamer: 2-2, 45 G, 45 IP, 43 K, 17 BB, 3.70 ERA
ESPN: 2-1, 30 K, 1.13 WHIP, 3.30 ERA
Average: 2-1.3, 51 G, 43.2 IP, 39 K, 17.3 BB, 1.18 WHIP, 3.54 ERA
All of the projection programs predict a regression for Edgin, but his small-sample numbers in 2014 were unreal. Interestingly, PECOTA and Steamer don’t see Edgin as a LOOGY but as a traditional pitcher out of the pen, ZiPS on the other hand is on board for the “use Edgin way too much” wagon.
