Vic Black was acquired with Dilson Herrera for a trade that sent John Buck and Byrd to the Pirates. While Herrera is becoming a touted prospect, Black has been quietly becoming a piece of the Mets bullpen. Last year Black put up the following numbers for the Mets:
2014 Stats: 2-3, 41 G, 34.2 IP, 32 K, 19 BB, 1.30 WHIP, 2.60 ERA
Lets take a look different projections for the 2015 season:
PECOTA (BP): 2-1, 45 G, 50.1 IP, 55 K, 24 BB, 1.24 WHIP, 3.29 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 1-1, 24.1 IP, 26 K, 11 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.33 ERA
MLB.com: 2-3, 58.0 IP, 56 K, 27 BB, 1.36 WHIP, 3.41 ERA
ZiPS: 57 G, 56.1 IP, 61 K, 33 BB, 3.67 ERA
Steamer: 3-3, 55 G, 55 IP, 56 K, 26 BB, 3.78 ERA
ESPN: 3 W, 48 K, 1.44 WHIP, 3.20 ERA
Average: 2.2-2, 52.3 G, 48.8 IP, 50.3 K, 24.2 BB, 1.32 WHIP, 3.45 ERA
So the computers, with the exception of the PECOTA presented on MLB.com, expect Black to have a mostly full season at the majors and a return to a more human ERA at 3.45, which would still be good out of pen since Black looks to be farther down the line with Mejia/Familia and Parnell when he returns. Although his WHIP isn’t great, that K/BB ratio projects well in each projection. BP also throws in that he has a 28% chance to significantly better than his projection and a 39% to improve from last year.
