(I need to work on snappier titles)
Yesterday I stumbled upon the ESPN power number projections for the Mets players in the 2015 season. I wish their projections would include either PA’s or AB’s as it would add context, but we’ll have to do with what they provide. Anyway if you want the raw data without my analysis, follow the link.
Last year as a team, the Mets hit 125 homers, down from 130 the year before and 139 the year before that. In 2012 the top three homer hitters were Davis (32), Wright (21) and Hairston (20). In 2013 it was Byrd with (21), Wright (18) and Buck/Duda both with (15). Last year it was Duda (30), Granderson (20), d’Arnaud (13). 2015 will be the first season in sometime where the Mets go into the season with all top 3 of their top 3 homer hitters, even though the power has been dropping off.
ESPN Projections:
- Duda – 27
- Granderson – 23
- Cuddyer – 19
- d’Arnaud – 17
- Wright – 16
- Murphy – 10
- Flores – 8
My initial response is Duda, Cuddyer, and Murphy look right. Granderson and d’Arnaud seem a bit high. Wright seems low, I expect him to be around 20. It’s hard to gauge Flores without seeing how much time he gets at short. If he starts 140+ games, expect it to be about 10-12.
If you add up all of the homers for players they list and expect to play in the majors for the Mets, you get 154. Which seems really high.
If you look at just the Mets starters (the above list plus Lagares at 6), you get 126 homers, which would still be above last year. In addition to the starters, Recker is listed at 7, if he gets 40 starts, I think he can put up 7 (not sure if d’Arnaud puts up 17 though in 120), Mayberry at 4 seems right, Captain Kirk at 5 seems high, den Dekker at 3 seems high as well.
Using the ESPN projections as a base, which I’m still deciding how I feel about it, I put the Mets at about 140-145 homers this year. That is dependent on players staying healthy. Power wise, the team reminds me of a better version of the 2012 team as long as Duda has a near repeat performance and Wright returns close to what he was before. In that case Duda provides Davis numbers, Wright provides Wright numbers and both Granderson and Cuddyer can provide Hairston numbers, accounting for the improvement of 139 homers.
