As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.
Josh Edgin is going to be tricky. He was an under-utilized LOOGY who really could have been used in more situations. Coupled with Terry’s “management” of the bullpen, predicting performance by computer models is difficult.
2014 Projections:
ESPN: 65 G, 52.0 IP, 23 BB, 44 K, 1 SV, 4.15 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Steamer: 55 G, 55.0 IP, 3.83 ERA, 3 SV
Oliver: 55 G, 57.0 IP, 3.95 ERA
PECOTA: 54 G, 57.7 IP, 23 BB, 56 K, 3.78 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Average: 57.25 G, 55.4 IP, 23 BB, 50 K, 3.93 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
2014 Actual:
47 G, 27.1 IP, 6 BB, 28 K, 1.32 ERA, 0.915 WHIP
I’m not sure what to make of this comparison. He had an incredible season, especially compared to his projections. But, he ended up having a limited sample size as he was often one and done in games, shown by the exaggerated difference between games and innings pitched. Since he was also used in statistical advantages, his walks, ERA and WHIP look great (especially as he is coming into understanding how to use his talents). He looks to have an upper hand in getting into the pen since he is one of the few lefties.
