As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.
Bartolo Colon had a solid season for the orange and blue last year, however he came in coming off of one of the best seasons in his career. No one expected him to repeat that, but lets see what the computers saw Colon doing 2014:
2014 Projections:
ESPN: 25 G, 25 GS, 158.0 IP, 10 W, 28 BB, 101 K, 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 5.75 K/9
MLB: 169.0 IP, 12-10, 33 BB, 113 K, 3.67 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Steamer: 30 G, 30 GS, 192.0 IP, 12-11, 3.78 ERA, 6.52 K/9
Oliver: 28 G, 28 G, 175.0 IP, 12-8, 3.45 ERA, 5.66 K/9
PECOTA: 29 G, 29 GS, 174.0 IP, 9.4-13.5, 35 BB, 124 K, 3.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.4 K/9
Average: 28 G, 28 GS, 173.6 IP, 11.1 – 10.6, 32 BB, 112.6 K, 3.64 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.1 K/9
2014 Actual:
31 G, 31 GS, 202.1 IP, 15-13, 30 BB, 151 K, 4.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.7 K/9
Outside of ERA, Colon did better or right as expected in every category. He pitched way more than was originally thought, and struck out a good chunk more batters than originally thought. The ERA was high, but the computers were asking him to have essentially a consistent good ERA for three seasons, something Colon doesn’t do, with the exception of a couple of early career seasons. I’m curious as to how this translates into 2015 projections and reality.
