As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.
I’m not sure how much we’ll get out of reviewing Jenrry Mejia’s projections vs actual numbers because at the start of the season, it looked like Mejia was going to be a starter and he was for the first part of the season before be switched into the bullpen. Anyway here are his numbers:
2014 Projections:
ESPN: 23 G, 20 GS, 114.0 IP, 39 BB, 71 K, 7 W, 3.79 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
MLB: 105.0 IP, 5-5, 37 BB, 90 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Steamer: 35 G, 5 GS, 4-3, 59.0 IP, 3.57 ERA
Oliver: 19 G, 13 GS, 4-4, 72.0 IP, 4.11 ERA
PECOTA: 23 G, 23 GS, 122.0 IP, 6-11.3, 46 BB, 90 K, 4.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Average: 17 G, 15 GS, 94.4 IP, 5.2-5.8, 40.6 BB, 83.6 K, 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
2014 Actual:
63 G, 7 GS, 93.2 IP, 6-6, 41 BB, 98 K, 3.65 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 28 SV
Surprisingly, the numbers are comparable! Outside of the start to relief splits, he had similar innings pitched, records, and walks. He crushed the amount of strikeouts and and ERA but his WHIP was considerably higher than projections. Ultimately, this was a great year for Mejia that would have been impossible for a computer to predict as his numbers last winter were calculated as a starter.
