As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.
Heading into 2015, Ruben Tejada looks to be the back up Shortstop behind Wilmer Flores. Ruben had back to back good seasons in 2011 and 2012, with the latter being a near breakout season. He slid in 2013. Below is what the computers projected would happen in 2014 followed by his actual results:
2014 Projections:
ESPN: 437 AB, 48 R, 1 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB, .259 BA, .313 OBP, .323 SLG
MLB: 477 AB, 60 R, 3 HR, 44 RBI, 4 SB, .273 BA, .328 OBP, .354 SLG
Steamer: 524 PA, 50 R, 3 HR, 38 RBI, 6 SB, .260 BA, .317 OBP, .339 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 54 R, 2 HR, 44 RBI, 6 SB, .239 BA, .291 OBP, .305 SLG
PECOTA: 525 PA, 473 BA, 46 R, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 4 SB, .247 BA, .301 OBP, .320 SLG
Average: 549 PA, 463 AB, 51.6 R, 2.4 HR, 39.4 RBI, 4.8 SB, .256 BA, .310 OBP, .328 SLG
2014 Actual:
419 PA, 355 AB, 30 R, 5 HR, 34 RBI, 1 SB, .237 BA, .342 OBP, .310 SLG
Ruben’s numbers are interesting on a number of levels. His homers were way up over his projections in over 100 less AB’s, yet his slugging percentage 18 points lower in reality. His batting average was way down from projections, but his OBP was way above. None of this points towards Tejada being a viable candidate currently for starting shortstop but it does point to models not being able to figure him out in 2014.
