As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.
Yesterday we looked at Ike Davis’s preseason prediction and compared it to his actual season. Lucas Duda had the opposite season posting breakout numbers, especially once he got the starting job. So, how did the computers do for Duda? Let’s take a look:
2014 Projections:
ESPN: 346 AB, 45 R, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 1 SB, .249 BA, .357 OBP, .408 SLG
MLB: 400 AB, 50 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .245 BA, .345 OBP, .403 SLG
Steamer: 342 PA, 37 R, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 2 SB, .237 BA, .334 OBP, .404 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 65 R, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 3 SB, .217 BA, .327 OBP, .372 SLG
PECOTA: 331 PA, 287 AB, 38 R, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB, .239 BA, .333 OBP, .415 SLG
Average: 424 PA, 344 AB, 47 R, 13.8 HR, 49 RBI, 2 SB, .237 BA, .320 OBP, .404 SLG
2014 Actual:
596 PA, 514 AB, 74 R, 30 HR, 92 RBI, 3 SB, .253 BA, .349 OBP, .481 SLG
It is easy to dismiss the computer projections because they predicted Duda to be in a platoon the entire season, and that wasn’t the case at all, so of course Duda would put up Runs, Homers and RBIs above the projections. The computer models failed heavily on the averages. Duda hit way better for average, had a significant bump in OBP and his slugging jumped way up. Ultimately, Duda experienced a breakout that the average of the projections did not see. No projections were even close, except ESPN and MLB were close on BA and OBP.
