As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.
Ike Davis is no longer on the Mets but I’m curious to see what the computers thought Davis would be able to do at the start of the season. As a primer in case you forgot for some odd reason, Davis and Duda were in a competition for a starting job, Davis struggled and was traded away. Duda on the other hand had a breakout season.
2014 Projections:
ESPN: 441 AB, 64 R, 20 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB, .234 BA, .339 OBP, .422 SLG
MLB: 400 AB, 50 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .245 BA, .345 OBP, .403 SLG
Steamer: 409 PA, 47 R, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 2 SB, .238 BA, .340 OBP, .439 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 68 R, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 3 SB, .216 BA, .327 OBP, .398 SLGPECOTA: 472 PA, 410 AB, 57 R, 19 HR, 64 RBI, 2 SB, .236 BA, .330 OBP, .428 SLG
Average: 493.7 PA, 417 AB, 57.2 R, 18.6 HR, 62.8 RBI, 2.4 SB, .234 BA, .336 OBP, .418 SLG
2014 Actual:
427 PA, 360 AB, 43 R, 11 HR, 51 RBI, 0 SB, .233 BA, .344 OBP, .378 SLG
The only area where Davis and the computer matched was the batting average, and the computer underestimated his ability to get on base (slightly-and it it still isn’t great). However Davis was needed for power and the computer predicted he would slide, partially due to a slide in playing time. In reality Davis’s power numbers went into a sharp decline with a slugging considerably lower than the computer prediction. Tomorrow we’ll look at Lucas Duda’s 2014 vs what the computers thought!
