As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.
In part 4 of our series, we look at d’Arnaud who had two very different seasons last year. He was dreadful for the first half of the year, went down to the minors, and when he returned he was amazing, putting him in a position for a breakout season next year. While the projections don’t go into details regarding streaks, how well did they do at his season as a whole? Let’s start by looking at what the predicted he would be able to do:
2014 Projections:
ESPN: 414 AB, 46 R, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 1 SB, .239 BA, .325 OBP, .389 SLG
MLB: 380 AB, 44 R, 8 HR, 46 RBI, 1 SB, .263 BA, .346 OBP, .368 SLG
Steamer: 428 PA, 44 R, 13 HR, 49 RBI, 2 SB, .254 BA, .320 OBP, .418 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 65 R, 16 HR, 70 RBI, 2 SB, .241 BA, .312 OBP, .397 SLG
PECOTA: 489 PA, 441 AB, 55 R, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 1 SB, .250 BA, .315 OBP, .414 SLG
Average: 505.7 PA, 411.7 AB, 50.8 R, 13 HR, 53.6 RBI, 1.4 SB, .249 BA, .324 OBP, .397 SLG
2014 Actual:
421 PA, 385 AB, 48 R, 13 HR, 41 RBI, 1 SB, .242 BA, .302 OBP, .416 SLG
The computers were pretty accurate for d’Arnaud as they were either right on, slightly above or slightly below. Ultimately the difference between the projections and the actual were the computers thought d’Arnaud would have more AB’s and hit for a similar amount of power, which means in reality his slugging ended up being higher. Here’s hoping that the computers continue an accurate outlook for d’Arnaud and predict a big season!
