As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.
In part three of our series we look into the Mets big 2013/2014 off-season acquisition, Curtis Granderson.
2014 Projections:
ESPN: 549 AB, 87 R, 24 HR, 73 RBI, 14 SB, .233 BA, .323 OBP, .426 SLG
MLB: 549 AB, 86 R, 28 HR, 88 RBI, 13 SB, .242 BA, .329 OBP, .450 SLG
Steamer: 581 PA, 71 R, 24 HR, 68 RBI, 11 SB, .228 BA, .320 OBP, .429 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 71 R, 19 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB, .220 BA, .306 OBP, .390 SLG
PECOTA: 610 PA, 532 AB, 79 R, 26 HR, 82 RBI, 15 SB, .229 BA, .315 OBP, .434 SLG
Average: 597 PA, 543.3 AB, 78.8 R, 24.2 HR, 75.4 RBI, 13 SB, .230 BA, .319 OBP, .426 SLG
2014 Actual:
654 PA, 564 AB, 73 R, 20 HR, 66 RBI, 8 SB, .227 BA, .326 OBP, .388 SLG
There was hope at the start of the season that Granderson would be able to outperform his projections. The average of the projections got his BA and OBP pretty much right, but he had more of a power decline than originally thought seen through his SLG, homers, and RBI’s. Usually computers underestimate a player’s season, but Granderson actually performed below those numbers.
