As we head down the pipe to Pitchers and Catchers, Spring Training, Spring Training Games and the 2015 season, computers are rolling out 2015 projections on how every player will perform. Before getting a 2015 preview, at 213 Miles From Shea we wanted to see how the computers handled 2014.
Yesterday we took a look at the captain, today let’s look at 2014’s only Mets All Star, Daniel Murphy.
2014 Projections:
ESPN: 603 AB, 78 R, 9 HR, 64 RBI, 15 SB, .289 BA, .324 OBP, .410 SLG
MLB: 610 AB, 84 R, 11 HR, 73 RBI, 14 SB, .287 BA, .333 OBP, .410 SLG
Steamer: 576 PA, 65 R, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 11 SB, .280 BA, .323 OBP, .408 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 71 R, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 17 SB, .280 BA, .319 OBP, .405 SLG
PECOTA: 611 PA, 567 AB, 72 R, 56 RBI, 11 HR, 13 SB, .274 BA, .316 OBP, .400 SLG
Average: 595.7 PA, 593.3 AB, 74 R,10.2 HR, 62.6 RBI, 13.6 SB, .282 BA, .323 OBP, .407 SLG
2014 Actual:
642 PA, 596 AB, 79 R, 9 HR, 57 RBI, 13 SB, .289 BA, .332 OBP, .403 SLG
The average of the 2014 projection programs come out pretty close to his actual season. He had a few more AB’s, 1.2 less homers, about 5 less RBI’s, within one SB, a BA 7 points higher, an OBP 9 points higher and a SLG 4 points lower. Where the computers had problems with Wright, I would say they handled Murphy quite well. Murphy had a season that was easier to predict thanks to consistent play time.
