Teams deciding to rebuild, buy or stay pat sometimes have to measure themselves against what other teams in the division are doing. For example, the Reds traded Latos after the Cubs signed Lester. The NL West has been an interesting place this off-season. The Dodgers shed a lot of weight, some of it within the division, but were still able to retool and become stronger. The Padres have practically a new team.
The Diamondbacks have been in a bit of selling mode by trading Didi, Miley and Montero, but have retooled with prospects and signing Tomas.
So from the Rockies view, the Dodgers and Padres have improved, the Diamondbacks are a bit of a mystery as their offense has improved but their rotation/defense has taken a hit. And then there are the Giants. The Giants are coming off of a World Series but lost Sandoval and weren’t able to sign Lester. If the Giants can sign James Shield and possibly make another move, then they can come out of the 0ff-season looking a bit stronger than current perceptions.
What do the Rockies get for staying put? They would need fantastic, injury free seasons from both Tulo and CarGo to have a chance at winning the division. The Dodgers are sleeker, the Padres are tougher and the Giants, even if they don’t sign one more elite player, are not going to regress too much. Last year, the NL West had the Rockies with 96 losses and the Diamondbacks with 98 Losses.
The Rockies are not in a position to win this year. However, that doesn’t mean they should just give up their franchise players. But if they do trade their two franchise players, they could see a solid haul in return. If the cost is too high, other teams won’t bite. If the cost is too low, then the Rockies risk hurting themselves.
Should the Rockies trade Tulo to the Mets? The Rockies place a high value on Tulo because when healthy he is one of the best players in the league and financially speaking he is a major draw to the ballpark and the organization loves him. Should the Mets make a massive package of prospects? Teams value their prospects way more usually than prospects are actually worth. Taking the market rate out of it (I think the money is actually fair for Tulo, especially compared to recent contracts other players have just received), trading the organization away for Tulo is a massive risk. If he stays oft injured, and our prospects develop into stars, then the Mets made a massive mistake. If he stays healthy then it doesn’t matter what happens to our prospects.
I’ve made it clear over the last several weeks that I’m for the Mets trading for Tulo. My point here is that it is more complicated than the Rockies getting the right package for Tulo and the Mets being able to take the hit of the package. What the other NL West teams and what the other NL East teams should factor in for making a trade. Right now the NL West points that it would be prudent for the Rockies to sell (but they would have to commit to that, and I’m not sure they would) and the NL East points to the Mets buying.
