Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.
Today we take a break from batters to start a two part mini-series on the fifth spot of the rotation. Today we will look at John Lannan and tomorrow Daisuke. We’ll then cover Mejia on the 26th. Anyway, Lannan can walk away from his deal if he doesn’t make the major league roster by the end of March. Lannan, Daisuke join Farnsworth and Valverde all as former major leaguers trying to find spots on the major league roster. Let’s take a look at his projections:
2013: 14 G, 14 GS, 74.1 IP, 3-6, 5.33 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 4.60 K/9, 27 BB, 38 K
ESPN: 13 G, 13 GS, 75.0 IP, 4 W, 4.68 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.56 K/9, 29 BB, 38 K
MLB: 75.0 IP, 4-5, 4.32 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 30 BB, 50 K
Steamer: PROJECTS ONLY ONE INNING OF WORK. LEFT OUT.
Oliver: 25 G, 25 GS, 141.0 IP, 8-8, 4.46 ERA, 4.52 K/9
PECOTA: 3 G, 3 GS, 16.0 IP, 0.8 -1.5, 4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 5 BB, 10 K
Average: 13.6 G, 13.6 GS, 76.75 IP, 4.2-4.75, 4.48 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 4.83 K/9, 21.3 BB, 32.6 K
Averaging this was tough because although projection websites are consistent for hitters, they aren’t so much for pitchers. I included Oliver even though it is a bit high on the amount of games because PECOTA was a bit low. Lannan averages out to slightly less than a third of a season pitching about 75/76 innings. He projects to be slightly less than a .500 pitcher with an ERA that is almost exactly average and a WHIP that suggests that there would be very few clean innings.
If this what we got out of a fifth starter until Syndegaard arrives, I’d be happy with that (although I would still hope for Mejia).
