Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.
Today we continue our look at first base. Yesterday we looked at Ike Davis, today we will look at his main competition, and also outfield competition in Lucas Duda. (Tomorrow we will look at Josh Satin). Anyway let’s look at Duda’s projections:
2013: 318 AB, 42 R, 15 HR, 0 SB .223 BA, .352 OBP, .415 SLG
ESPN: 346 AB, 45 R, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 1 SB, .249 BA, .357 OBP, .408 SLG
MLB: 400 AB, 50 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .245 BA, .345 OBP, .403 SLG
Steamer: 342 PA, 37 R, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 2 SB, .237 BA, .334 OBP, .404 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 65 R, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 3 SB, .217 BA, .327 OBP, .372 SLG
PECOTA: 331 PA, 287 AB, 38 R, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB, .239 BA, .333 OBP, .415 SLG
Average: 424 PA, 344 AB, 47 R, 13.8 HR, 49 RBI, 2 SB, .237 BA, .320 OBP, .404
Basically, the models really don’t support Duda over Davis at all. They suggest that Duda will not have the power that Davis has next season. Oliver projects all batters to 600 plate appearances, which is why the numbers seem higher than other models, but even that one slams Duda with batting average. If these projections hold true, it is also difficult to see how Duda fits into the outfield also. Duda is in better shape this spring, so the games in March will matter.
