Is Stephen Drew different enough from Ruben Tejada to warrant a contract?
The debate around signing Drew centers on that pivotal question. Fangraphs has Steamer and Oliver projections for both Drew and Tejada posted already. Let’s take some time to pour over the data:
Stephen Drew:
Steamer: 530 AB, 13 HR, 68 R, 6 SB, .232 BA, .314 OBP, .378 SLG, 2.0 WAROliver: 534 AB, 16 HR, 66 R, 5 SB, .230 BA, .308 OBP, .390 SLG, 1.9 WAR
Ruben Tejada:
Steamer: 469 AB, 3 HR, 53 R, 6 SB, .260 BA, .317 OBP, .339 SLG, 1.6 WAR
Oliver: 547 AB, 2 HR, 54 R, 6 SB, .239 BA, .289 OBP, .305 SLG, 0.4 WAR
For Drew, the two models are in a lot of agreement. Oliver suggests slightly more power while Steamer suggests he’ll get on base more, and a slightly higher WAR.
For Tejada, there is a good bit of variance in the data. Steamer has Tejada is an almost platoon situation or missing a large swath of playing time but has him performing higher at batting average and on base thus a much higher WAR. The WAR suggested by Steamer is close to that of Drew. Oliver disagrees, suggesting a rough season for Tejada. Oliver and Steamer did the same for Davis, with Steamer suggesting a higher WAR for Davis playing less time during the season than in the Oliver projection. (Link for those who want to see the data).
In either case, Drew projects to be a better player than Tejada even though Drew’s numbers are not that great. Knowing that, the Mets need to be careful to overpay too much to land Drew. It is a calming thought that the models for Drew are pretty similar. His career trends seem to pan out to similar results despite the different calculations. I was already in camp Drew before looking at the numbers, but now I’m really in camp Drew.
