Baseball Prospectus rolled out their first versions of their projections for this year, projections they promise to update several more times throughout the off-season (which makes sense as players playing time can sometimes be difficult to predict right now), while I don’t want to spill all the beans, mainly because you have to pay to look at the spreadsheet and their work is worth paying for, I did want to share some of their great work.
I can’t stress enough how worth it is to buy a subscription to Baseball Prospectus for this spreadsheet and access to their articles, written by people that can actually write and stuff.
Anyway, let’s look at what BP thinks some of the Mets Position Starters will do this year:
Wright: .290 BA, .373 OBP, 34 2B, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 19 SB
2011 Numbers: .254 BA, .345 OBP, 23 2B, 14 HR, 61 RBI, 13 SB
Career Numbers: .300 BA, .380 OBP
It looks like BP’s formula are targeting Wright for a bounce back season. His averages look below his career numbers, but look a lot better than his 2011 numbers. The only stat I disagree with is his RBI. If he plays the full season, I feel he will be more in the 95-105 range for RBI’s.
Davis: .269 BA, .348 OBP, 20 HR, 72 RBI
2011 Numbers: .302 BA, .383 OBP, 7 HR (35 G)
Career Numbers: .271 BA, .357 OBP
They are predicting Davis very close to his career numbers. His numbers drop off mainly because he was in a hot streak when he got inured last year. However, the optimist feels the homerun numbers are low, real low.
Murphy: .288 BA, .336 OBP, 11 HR, 70 RBI
2011 Numbers: .320 BA, .362 OBP, 6 HR, 49 RBI
Career Numbers: .292 BA, .343 OBP
The way BP sees Murphy is that his hitting frequency was too high last year, and they see his numbers dropping off from his career. They do see a big turn around in his power numbers. You are now going to see the real fan in me jump out. I think his numbers will be higher than this. I’m with R.A. Dickey in thinking that Murphy will have a breakout season.
Bay: .255 BA, .343 OBP, 18 HR, 63 RBI
2011 Numbers: .245 BA, .329 OBP, 12 HR, 57 RBI
Career: .274 BA, .369 OBP
I agree with BP on Bay’s numbers. Mainly because he didn’t really give any reason yet to change my mind. Since expectations for him have been lowered, these numbers seem quite good (18 homers? I’ll take that!)
