Recently we took a look at David Wright and what ESPN and CBS concluded would be his statistic outlook for the upcoming season. Let's do the same thing for Reyes, Bay and Francoeur. With Reyes, lets not even look at what he did last year and just look at what the two websites concluded for 2010:
CBS: 521 AB, 85 R, 10 HR, 55 RBI, 40 BB, 65 K, 45 SB, .286 BA
One thing these two projections got correct would be the power numbers. I think those are right around where they should be (but could turn out a smidge higher). I thought it was also funny the discrepancy of stolen bases between the two sites. This shows everyone's uncertainty about where his speed will be once he comes back (the difference in the batting averages is also due to a question of where his hitting will be). The one stat that can be really picked apart is the RBI's. Ultimately, this will depend on how long or if it all Reyes's bats third. If he doesn't at all, his RBI numbers will be close to these projections, if he bats third, then it should be higher.
Jason Bay is a player who's numbers have been picked apart all off season, and now its time to do it again with is 2009 numbers, ESPN and CBS projections:
ESPN: 532 AB, 105 R, 25 HR, 110 RBI, 92 BB, 159 K, .274 BA
CBS: 550 AB, 100 R, 26 HR, 103 RBI, 85 BB, 145 K, .286 BA
Ready for this rant? ESPN says the drop in power will be due to Citi Field. Honestly I am sick of this at this point. First off, if you want to use statistics, they all show that hitting a homerun is not that difficult at Citi Field. Not only did the Mets hit more homers at Citi than on the road, but the Phillies hit more homers against the Mets last year in Queens than when the played the Mets at Philly! Also, ITS ONE YEAR. We do not have the stats yet to truely know what the effects of Citi Field are (and honestly you do not want to hear my rant about how the media in general, especially in politics, misuse statistics).
Finally there is Jeff Francoeur. Honestly I think he's a good player, and I know people have think that he isn't. He is decent. The Mets do not need everyone to be awesome and hopefully this year the Mets will not (knock on wood), need him to bat cleanup. Anyway here are his stats (for the ESPN one, the numbers in parethesis are the stats related to what he hit last year):
CBS: 582 AB, 74 R, 19 HR, 85 RBI, 33 BB, 105 K, 5 SB, .271 BA
If Franceour hits these numbers in the sixth spot, that will be very productive for the Amazin's this year. Its also always funny to see how many walks people expect Frenchy to get.
Finally, because its always fun to compare, here are the numbers from ESPN on how Pujols and Hanely Ramirez expect to perform this year, written in the same system as Frenchy above:
Ramirez : 595 (+19), 113 (+12) R, 29 (+5) HR, 91 (-15) RBI, 34 (+7) SB, .324 (-.018) BA
