The Mets take on the Marlins for game two of the series following a nice 7-1 win last night. The win last night makes the season record now tied between the Mets and the Marlins, and as we know from last year, the key to winning a division is beating your division, so the Mets hope to continue that plan tonight as they take on Ricky Nolasco behind Livan Hernandez. The other important part of this game tonight is that a win not only secures a second consecutive series win but also puts the Mets back at .500, where they want to be.
Livan Hernandez had a terrible outing his last time out and it really wrecked his stat line which is now 1-1, 7.31 ERA, 16 IP, 4 BB and 7 K on the season. His best outing so far on the season was his first which was against the Marlins, so the Mets look for him to strike again tonight. Last time he got the win in 6.2 innings of work allowing 2 ER, 3 BB, and striking out 4. In 2007, Hernandez was 2-0 against the Marlins with a 3.21 EERA over 14.0 IP, 2 BB and 5 K. Here are the numbers the Marlins have against him:
Uggla 4-15, 3B, HR
Helms 5-13, HR
Hermida 4-13
Cantu 0-6
Gload 2-6
Ross 2-6
The Marlins have now lost 7 straight, so their hitters are probably starting to feel the pressure and that could be a very good thing for Hernandez who is a very patient pitcher. His success agaisnt the Marlins of late has generally come from his ability to recongnize that they are young and impatient. If he can do the same thing to them again tonight, he should be able to quiet this offense again.
The Mets tonight are going to try to repeat Nolasco's last outing against the Mets. Earlier this season (also against Livan) he lasted only 5 innings while giving up 4 ER, 2 BB, and striking out 2. On the season he is now 1-2 with a 6.88 ERA over 4 games, 21.0 IP, 6 BB and 17 K. In 2008 against the Mets he went 1-2 over 6 games and 5 starts with a 3.48 ERA over 33.2 IP so he does have some success against the Mets and the Mets cannot sleep on him. Here are the numbers the Mets have against him:
Reyes 13-29, 2B, 3B, 3HR
Beltran 8-26, HR
Wright 12-28, 3 2B, 3 HR
Church 2-10, 2B, HR
Murphy 4-11
Castillo 6-9
The Mets have a lot of power numbers agianst Nolasco which is good because they are still doing a pretty poor job of knocking the ball out of the park (which is a direct correlation with the lack of big innings) as they have now hit 12 in 19 games. Reyes can really see the ball well off of Nolasco so look for a lot of table setting tonight. Tonight could be a good example of whether or not the Mets can actually hit with RISP. Lets Go Mets! Fry the Fish!
