A while ago i determined that since Billy Wagners K/9 was 11.70 he had a KAVG of .433 that meant he had the probabilyt of 83% of getting at least one strikeout per game based upon binomial probabilty.
Now i will demonstrate why that means nothing.
Lets say that Billy Wagner pitched the ninth inning every game. And every game he recorded one strikeout. that would make his K/9 = 9.00
Now a 9.00 would lead to a KAVG of .333
when put into the calculation
1-binomcdf(3,.33,0) to find out the probabilyt of at least one strikeout per three outs, the anser is 70%
So 70% of the time he would have at least one strikeout. However in this scenario, we said that he had one strikeout per inning anyway.
What this proves is actually the point of statistics. As my statistics teacher said, if we were assure that all the answers we got were 100% def. true, then there would be no statistics. Statistics is the look into the chance that things will happen and this test shows that flaw in the hypothesis theorem that even though the stats suggest that billy should be getting 1 or more strikeouts in 70% of the games, by his stats he easily could just get 1 per game meaning 100% of the time
Thus is the magic of baseball, that we can sit here and destroy graphs of stats and liklyhoods of this and that happening, but still anything can happen that is 100% justified by math.
pretty deep
