This is the start of a series of blogs I hope to run that applies binomial probability to batting averages
As a quick definition, binomial probability is the chance for something to occur that has two outcomes, either it happens or it doesnt. Now the two forms to look at are pdf and cdf, basically one is the chance of one situation happening, the other is less than or more than. One can use this to determine the exact probabilty of getting exactly one hit or the probability to get two hits or less.
The first set of numbers is if the batter, in this case our golden boy David Wright, had five chances in a game to bat.
So first we need a TI-83 Plus. The following is the probabilty of him getting exactly 0 hits, 1 hit, 2 hits, etc, the last number in the parenthesis is the number of hits the probabillity represents.
Binompdf(5,.311,0): .155
Binompdf(5,.311,1): .350
Binompdf(5,.311,2): .316
Binompdf(5,.311,3): .142
Binompdf(5,.311,4): .032
Binompdf(5,.311,5): .003
What does this all mean? Well one thing I have too much time and Baseball Season really needs to start. Second, the best probability is 1 hit, and followed close by getting two hits, which is great. Later I might set up the situation if Wright gets 4 AB's in a game.
So to sum up, bring your graphing calculator to the ballpark with ur score card, cause it can produce some interesting debates
Later I will be posting another one of these, as well as a daily roundup and similar to the Phillies Vs Mets, I will be posting another version, Braves Vs Mets.
